Global concerns about the likelihood of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon have now reached fever pitch. It is very likely that a US war on Iran is looming. As much as for now https://www.brookwriters.com/nuclear-bomb-reg…al-repercussions/the relations between the US and Iran are laden with apprehension. For several years the two nations thrived on close friendship. As a matter of fact stemming from their close friendship in the 60s the then Iran regime was assisted to begin a fuel producing nuclear program. In 1968 Iran became a signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This is a universal treaty that monitors international nuclear activities with the objective of averting the increase or propagation of nuclear weapons.
Regional and Global repercussions
Iran’s Nuclear weapons threats are actual and immediate. It is visible that Iran indeed is already developing a Nuclear weapon if not it already wants to do so. There is a likelihood that the US will act unilaterally if it deems fit to annihilate the nuclear production facilities in Iran. By these estimations the country that has been christened the axis of evil could be some months away from acquiring its nuclear weapon. Upon acquiring this weapon there is a strong probability that it will use it against Israel a critical US Allie. Being one of the nations that openly support terrorism it is likely to pass some of these weapons to some of the radical Islamic groups for instance Hamas, Al-Qaida or Hezbollah.
Apart from that Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iraq, Turkey and other countries in the region would want to acquire a nuclear weapon if Iran succeeds for their defense/sovereignty purposes to avoid bullying from Tehran. This would again post a big threat to Iran since none of these countries will be able to mount effective offence against Iran using ordinary terms. Even as it makes its pursuit of nuclear weapons real, Iran risks anticipatory strikes from other nations that would want to deny it this very objective. In the event that Iraq acquires a nuclear weapon, and a conflict occurs with its adversaries they will want to destroy its nuclear weapons first. Since its nuclear program has no public assurance of stability its very presence is destabilizing.
In addition to that country’s that already have a neutral foreign policy with Iran would want to join a coalition that may balance the power in Iran due to fears that Iran’s military capacity could be disastrous symbolized by the nuclear weapon. This would also create more threats to Tehran. This means that Iran will be faced with challenges when it comes to securing its nuclear weapons.
Given that messianic Islamic extremists are averse in parts of Iran’s regime and even in its own Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGH). Iraq would be faced with potential theft of the nuclear weapons by its own insiders. However, the potential is likely to be very convoluted since current nuclear weapons have no complicated security devices for instance accounting procedures, permissive action links and specific control of materials.
The international community through the United Nations has made its critical objective on nuclear weapons to be non proliferation. A number of sanctions have already been placed on proliferators with the objective of making them discard their nuclear programs. Incase Iran acquires a nuclear weapon it is likely to face tough economic sanctions which if effectively checked and obligated are likely to generate destructive economic effect that will threaten its very survival as an autonomous regime. For this matter the Iran regime should consider these factors to determine whether the acquisition of a nuclear weapon would be of any merit in the long run.
The experience that the US had in Iraq and Afghanistan Iran’s neighbors shows the very uncontrollable and negative consequences that a full scale war can have on America. Consequently, the top priority of the US would be to use economic sanctions to ensure Iraq does not acquire a nuclear weapon. However, US policy makers are very much concerned with the threat that an Iranian Nuclear bomb would have on Israel. As a matter of fact given that Israel considers a nuked Iran to be a big threat to its security, international analysts believe that Israel is likely to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the US continues to shift ground. This is likely to force the US a fundamental Israeli ally into a conflict that is likely to ignite a worse regional war.
The US and its allies have their economies closely tied to the oil flowing from the Persian Gulf. This is where Iran is geographically located. The sustained flow of this oil at constant prices has been very critical for the recovery of the USA from the 2007 economic downturn. Analysts have warned that any increase in oil prices due to disability in the Persian Gulf is likely to lead to another economic downturn.
If Iran acquires a nuclear weapon the global fight against terrorism would move into a different stage. This is because the current regime openly supports terrorists groups. The US is thus not just threatened by Iran’s nuclear development program but also its activities in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. The current Iran government currently supports and finances terror groups in Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq territories. Iran was behind the vicious insurgency in Iraq that ended the lives of many Iraq Civilians, Coalition, US and Iraq troops. Iran through its current regime has already used threatening language against Israel a critical US ally. It has already started extending its influence in the Middle East following the Arab spring that brought down several regimes. In the wake of these recent developments, it has already threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz; a Persian Gulf shipping lane critical to the survival of the economies of the US and its allies.
Given these aggressions it would be suicidal for the US to underrate the threats posed by Iran. It must be understood that the only sure way in which Iran’s hostile intentions can be dealt with is through regime change. Even if Iran’s nuclear facilities are completely annihilated through premeditated strikes the current regime will not stop its quest for a nuclear weapon. A democratic Iran would befriend the US and would thus not seek Nuclear weapons.
As much as Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear weapon is of concern to not only the US but the entire world, military action to foster regime change in Iran will be expensive for the US both monetarily and in terms of the loss of life even for its own military as the case was in Iraq. Economic enticement and diplomacy should thus be used to influence leaders in Tehran to desert their quest for nuclear weapons. The principal factors that have lead to this escalation should be addressed. In the last three decades the US has propagated unsuccessful and provoking campaign to validate its subjugation of the Tehran regime.
The US should stop making threats to Iran for military action is likely to aggravate an already worse situation thus convincing Iran that it indeed needs a nuclear weapon for its own sovereignty. The international community led by the US should thus start working towards normalizing relations with Tehran in order to bring it back to the world platform. As much as Iran’s successive regimes have been complex to work with this is the best way to inhibit its nuclear ambitions. A more democratic Iran is a guarantee that they will never engage in efforts to acquire a nuclear weapon. However, as witnessed in Iraq the US efforts to topple another government is catastrophic, complex to manage and could trigger unforeseen destructive consequences such as the insurgents in Iraq.
The greatest risk today is not that of an Iran with a Nuclear weapon rather is that the US is likely to get involved in a very costly war staged in an explosive region. The results are likely to be very disastrous and are likely to overshadow those of a nuclear Iran. There is still no evidence to indicate that Iran already has a nuclear weapon but in the event that it acquires it this is a threat that could be managed. This is because in the last 7 decades ten countries acquired nuclear weapons and none of them has used them since the Second World War.
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